How Similar are Rural Maine and Rural China? | 美国与中国的乡村振兴计划有什么共通之处? - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
双语阅读

How Similar are Rural Maine and Rural China?
美国与中国的乡村振兴计划有什么共通之处?

long lead
常年在华工作的笔者近期回到美国旅行,在自己的家乡缅因州深切感觉到中国农村和缅因州农村在经济和人口问题上面临类似的艰难处境。
This is not really an essay about China. Mostly not, anyway. Over the last month, I’ve been back in the United States traveling. While this trip has taken me to New York, New Hampshire, and Georgia, I spent most of my time in my home state of Maine. There, I was struck by the parallels between the economic and demographic struggles of rural China and rural Maine. While both regions face challenges that are similar in many ways, they face these challenges with approaches reflective of their [different] respective political cultures.
前言:这并不是一篇关于中国的文章。至少大部分内容与中国无关。上个月,我回到美国旅行。这次旅行我去了纽约州、新罕布什尔州和佐治亚州,但我大部分时间都呆在我的家乡缅因州。在那里,我深切感觉到中国农村和缅因州农村在经济和人口问题上面临的类似的艰难处境。虽然这两个地区在许多方面面临着相似的挑战,但它们应对这些挑战的方法反映了各自不同的政治文化。
I have mentioned before that my interest in China’s rural economic development is motivated by its connection to my own life. I want to see China’s experiments with rural rejuvenation succeed, not just for aesthetic enjoyment, and the benefit it has for the citizens affected, but for their practical case study value.
我之前提到过,我对中国农村经济发展的兴趣是因为它与我自己的生活息息相关。我希望看到中国振兴乡村的实验取得成功,这不仅是出于美学价值,也不光因为它为相关的中国百姓带来福祉,而且还因为它们有现实的案例研究价值。
With that background in mine, I have decided to try writing about Maine. To help make it a little more insightful than just me and my personal observations, I also interviewed around ten people for this piece, including the current President of the Maine State Senate.
在这样的背景下,我决定试着写写我的家乡缅因州的故事。为了让这篇文章超越我个人的观察和感受,我还采访了大约十个人,包括缅因州参议院的现任主席。
Chapter 1: Keep Going North Until You Hit Canada
第一章:向北直达加拿大
Maine is as far north and east as you can go in the USA without stumbling into Canada. We are a rural state, a sparsely-populated one, and one of the poorer states in the country (44th smallest economy and 40th lowest GDP/capita. We are generally known for lobsters and Acadia National Park and Stephen King novels and that’s it.
缅因州位于美国的最东北角,距离加拿大只有一步之遥。它是一个农业州,一个人口稀少的州,也是全美国最贫穷的州之一(经济规模第44位,人均GDP第40位)。缅因州通常以龙虾、阿卡迪亚国家公园和斯蒂芬•金的小说而闻名,仅此而已。
I come from the even more sparsely-populated northern part of the state, in Aroostook County. There are currently only 67,000 people in Aroostook, so don’t be too surprised if you’ve never met one of us out in the wild. In Aroostook, we drive pick-up trucks with hunting rifles in the gun rack, listen to country music, and inject a remarkable number of Québécois French phrases into our heavily-accented English (a patois which I lost as soon as I went to college, but inevitably pops out when I return).
我来自该州北部人口更为稀少的阿鲁斯土克县(Aroostook County))。目前,阿鲁斯土克只有6.7万人口,所以如果你从未遇到过我们县的人,也不要太惊讶。在阿鲁斯土克,我们开着皮卡车,枪架上放着猎枪,听着乡村音乐,在我们口音浓重的英语中加入了数量惊人的魁北克法语短语(这是我一上大学就丢掉的乡音,但当我回乡时,仍不可避免地会蹦出来)。
The “Crown of Maine”, Aroostook is a geographically large county, but has just two “cities,” Caribou and Presque Isle. Maine is a 7-hour drive from tip to tip. Image: etravelmaine.com
被称为“缅因州之冠”的阿鲁斯土克是一个地理上很大的县,但只有两个“城市”,卡里布(Caribou)和普雷斯克岛(Presque Isle)。开车从缅因州一端到另外一端需要7个小时。
Maine has the lowest violent crime rate in the nation and one of the lowest rates of property crime. We never lock our homes or our cars. Hell, we usually leave our cars running with keys in the ignition in the parking lot in the winter so the heat stays on. Jeezum rice, it’s cold up here! Who could steal a car anyway? Everyone already knows what everyone drives. You’d never get away with it.
缅因州是全美国暴力犯罪率最低的州,也是财产犯罪率最低的州之一。我们从不锁我们的家门或我们的车。我们通常在冬天把车停在停车场,钥匙插在点火开关上,这样就能保持暖气。天啊,这里好冷!谁会偷车呢?每个人都知道自己开什么车。你逃不掉的。
My hometown is Fort Kent, population: 3800. This is the northern endpoint of US Route 1 (the southern terminus is in Key West, Florida).
我的家乡是肯特堡(Fort Kent),人口3800。这是美国1号公路的北部终点(南部终点在佛罗里达州的基韦斯特Key West)。
We have an international border crossing into New Brunswick, Canada. You’re equally likely to hear French or English spoken on the street. Your friends from southern Maine have heard of Fort Kent, but they have never been. They’ve always wanted to visit, but it’s just so far.
我们市与加拿大新不伦瑞克(New Brunswick)接壤。你在街上听到说法语或英语的几率是一样的。你那些来自缅因州南部的朋友会说,他们听说过肯特堡,但从未去过;他们一直想来游玩,但实在太远了。
In the 80s, Fort Kent had multiple bars, restaurants, and a downtown that might be described as lively - rowdy even, on the weekends. Then, the local forestry industry dried up. Now, it’s a town that’s been treading water and barely keeping its head dry for three decades. Very little changes. The population slowly trickles down. New restaurants open, then close again. This year, just 62 students graduated from the high school.
1980年代,肯特堡有多家酒吧、餐馆,而且在周末,市中心可以说是热闹的——甚至是喧闹的。然后,当地的伐木产业枯竭了。这个小镇在过去三十年里一直在原地踏步,勉强维生。变化很小。人口慢慢地递减。新餐馆开张,然后又关门。今年,只有62名学生从这里的高中毕业。
We don’t have much of an economy to speak of up here. Historically, it was dominated by the production of forestry products and small-scale agriculture, with a bit of light manufacturing. While harvesting of wood and production of paper/forestry products is an important industry in Aroostook County, and a provider of well-paid blue-collar jobs, it is now struggling, due to cheaper international competition, reduction of paper use in a digitized world, and lack of workers.
我们这里没有什么经济可言。历史上,它主要有林业产品生产和小规模农业,还有一点轻工业。虽然木材采伐和造纸/林产品生产是阿鲁斯土克县的一个重要产业,提供了高薪的蓝领工作,但由于国际竞争者成本更低,数字化世界用纸减少,以及缺乏工人,该行业目前正陷入困境。
In 1970, the paper industry employed a quarter of Maine’s total workforce. Today, production of paper products, wood products, and timber harvesting together employ fewer than 15,000 people statewide. The single largest employment sector in Aroostook is healthcare and health services, which is bound to keep growing as our population ages. The poverty rate in Aroostook is around 15% and likely closer to 20% or higher in Fort Kent. I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say the town is sick, but I wouldn’t say it’s healthy either.
1970年,造纸业雇佣了缅因州总劳动力的四分之一。如今,纸制品、木制品和木材采伐的生产在全州范围内总共雇用了不到1.5万人。阿鲁斯土克最大的就业部门是医疗保健和医疗服务。随着人口老龄化,这一行业势必会持续增长。阿鲁斯土克县的贫困率约为15%,肯特堡的贫困率可能接近20%或更高。我不知道我是否会描述这个小镇为“重疾缠身”,但我也不会说它是健康的。
As for the other industries from history, small-scale farming is rapidly disappearing too, while the light manufacturing is all but gone (mirroring its general decline in the US). Tourism has arisen as a new third-place contributor to GDP (behind wood harvesting/processing and agriculture) but still faces many challenges. I’ll talk more about tourism in Part 2 later. But for now, just know that our economy is…not great.
至于其他传统行业,以及小规模农业也在迅速消失,而轻工制造业也几乎消失了(这反映了美国轻工制造业的普遍衰落)。旅游业已成为GDP的第三大贡献者(仅次于木材采伐加工和农业),但仍面临许多挑战。我将在后面的第二部分中更多地讨论旅游业。现在,我们只需要知道:我们县的经济并不好。
Chapter 2: Where Have All the Workers Gone?
第二章:所有的工人都去哪儿了?
Most of the country has a labor shortage right now. But for Maine, shortage is an insufficiently urgent word…it’s already a full-blown crisis, especially up in Aroostook.
现在这个国家的大部分地区都存在劳动力短缺的问题。但对缅因州来说,短缺这个词还不够紧迫,它已经是一场全面的危机,尤其是在阿鲁斯土克。
Near my home is a gas station/convenience store owned by one of my teachers from elementary school. He told me after 15 years of running the place, he and his wife are going to put the place up for sale at the end of this year. This is not because business is bad, but because they’re exhausted. Even with the minimum wage set at $15/hour in Maine, they can’t find someone to work the cash register. They’re simply burnt out from working at the store 7 days a week, during what are supposed to be their retirement years. I hope the next owners are up for the task…(if they can find a buyer).
我家附近有一家加油站/便利店,是我当年小学的一位老师开的。他告诉我,在经营了15年之后,他和他的妻子打算在今年年底把店出售。这不是因为生意不好,而是因为他们实在干不动了。即使以缅因州的最低工资每小时15美元(在全美各州最低工资中处于较高水平——编者住),他们也找不到收银员。他们只是因为一周7天在店里工作而精疲力竭,而这段时间本该是他们的退休岁月。我希望下一任房主愿意承担这个任务——如果他们能找到买家接盘的话。
Aroostook’s population has been declining steadily for decades. Just like in China, young people of working age have few reasons to stick around the countryside, and increasingly choose to leave the area. While it’s not as extreme as what you’ll see in some Chinese towns, (which sometimes have literally nothing but elderly people and small children) we certainly seem to be trending in that direction.
几十年来,阿鲁斯土克的人口一直在稳步下降。就像在中国一样,劳动年龄的年轻人很少有理由留在农村,越来越多的人选择离开这个地区。虽然这不像你在中国的一些城镇看到的那样极端(这些城镇有时实际上只有老人和小孩),但我们似乎肯定朝着这个方向发展。
While the factors contributing to Maine’s sluggish economic performance are of course more complex than just labor shortages, the lack of workers is certainly one thing that everyone can agree on as being a huge problem. Entry-level workers, skilled workers, professional workers, it’s all the same. There are not enough people to fill jobs in Maine. The “Help Wanted” signs in storefronts across the state in everywhere from fast food to vehicle service centers are as ubiquitous as flannel shirts and orange hunting caps.
导致缅因州经济低迷的因素当然不止劳动力短缺这么简单,但工人短缺肯定是公认的一个巨大问题。初级工人,技术工人,专业工人,都是一样的。缅因州没有足够的人来填补工作岗位。从快餐店到汽车服务中心,全州各地的店面都张贴着“招聘”的标语,就像法兰绒衬衫和橙色狩猎帽一样无处不在。
A look at the growth trend of Maine’s labor force for the past few decades tells the story clearly:
看看缅因州过去几十年的劳动力增长趋势就能清楚地说明问题:
Maine Department of Labor: Workforce Outlook 2012-2022
劳动力的萎缩在阿鲁斯土克等农村地区尤为明显。这并不令人震惊,因为几十年来人口总数一直在减少。我们的社区正在逐渐消失。
The shrinkage in the labor force has been especially pronounced in rural areas like Aroostook. That’s not shocking, considering the population overall has been shrinking for decades. Our communities are just withering away.
我们的人口不仅在减少,而且也在变老。随着文化规范的改变和抚养孩子的成本不断上升,家庭要的孩子越来越少(缅因州到处都是对避孕过敏的天主教徒……他们过去都是大家庭)。
Not only is our population shrinking, but it’s also getting older. Families are having fewer children as cultural norms change and the cost of raising children keeps rising (Maine is full of Catholics allergic to contraception…those families used to be BIG).
与此同时,许多年轻人被吸引到州外更有吸引力的工作中去了。我想任何在中国农村旅行过的人都会看到这里的相似之处。
Meanwhile, many young people are being siphoned away to more attractive careers downstate, or out of state. I think anyone who has spent time traveling in the Chinese countryside will see the similarities here.
在缅因州商会发布的《振兴缅因州2022》白皮书中,500名缅因州雇主接受了关于他们对下一任缅因州州长的优先考虑的调查,其中46%的雇主选择“初级劳动力的供给”作为他们最关心的问题,与能源成本并驾齐驱。而我们正处在一场真正的能源危机之中。
Median age rising from 45 to 49 in just one decade
但情况变得更糟了。不仅是初级工人,“技术工人/技术工人的供给”和“专业工人供给”也是最优先考虑的问题,这两个问题都影响到超过40%的受访企业。这告诉我缅因州根本没有足够的人在任何级别工作。
In the Making Maine Work 2022 white paper published by the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, 500 Maine employers were surveyed on their priorities for the next Maine governor and the greatest percentage - 46% - selected “availability of entry-level workers” as their TOP concern, tied with energy costs. And that’s in the middle of an actual energy crisis.
除了导致企业倒闭之外,这还严重影响了阿鲁斯土克县招商的能力。即使有高薪、全年开放的公司想在这里开店,他们也会很难招到人。想来这里的公司必须非常有耐心,或者一开始就有很强的动机来到这里。
But it gets even worse. Not just entry-level workers, but “availability of skilled/technical workers” and “availability of professional workers” were ALSO among the top priorities, both affecting more than 40% of the businesses surveyed. This tells me there simply aren’t enough people to work at any level in Maine.
最近,就有这样一家潜在雇主来到了该地区,Valt Enterprinces,一家高科技航天和防务公司,希望利用附近城市普雷斯克岛的小机场开发卫星发射系统。我认为阿鲁斯土克县的低人口密度是一个很大的吸引力;任何发射失败的碎片都不太可能落在任何人身上或任何有价值的东西上。
Besides contributing to business closures, this has a dire impact on Aroostook’s ability to attract employers. Even if companies with well-paid, year-round jobs want to set up shop here, they’re going to struggle to find people to hire. These companies would have be extremely patient, or have some very strong motivation to come here in the first place.
Valt是计划成为普雷斯克岛航空航天研究园的第一个租户。Valt计划最终招聘130多名员工,包括工程师、研究科学家、机械师等。如果这真的发生了,它可能会成为该地区的一个大雇主(和纳税大户)。对于当地的经济规划者来说,看到阿鲁斯土克直接从缅因州计划中的新太空和航空航天工业中受益是令人兴奋的。
Recently, such a potential employer arrived in the region, Valt Enterprizes, a high-tech space and defense company that wants to use the small airport in the nearby city of Presque Isle to develop launch systems for satellites. I imagine Aroostook’s low population density is a big point of attraction; falling debris from any failed launches are unlikely to land on anyone or anything of value.
但这样的机会也同时凸显了当地招商面临的“鸡和蛋”的矛盾:即使该地区有足够的工人来填补这些职位,他们也需要特定的培训和学位来填补这些职位。学生们只有在毕业后就业前景看好的情况下才会选择特定的教育领域;但如果雇主很难相信他们能找到足够多的人才,他们就很难把这个地区视为有吸引力的业务所在地。在这种情况下,缅因州大学在普雷斯克岛的分校没有4年的工科课程,当地社区大学也没有2年的机械加工课程。这些人才从何而来?
Valt is the first tenant of what is planned to become the Presque Isle Aerospace Research Park. Valt is looking to eventually hire over 130 people, including engineers, research scientists, machinists, etc. If this actually happens, it would likely become a major employer (and taxpayer) in the region. It’s exciting for local economic planners to see Aroostook directly benefitting from Maine’s intended new space and aerospace industry.
为了解决这一问题,Valt被迫直接与当地学校合作,提供职业培训,以填补他们的数控加工职位:
A job post from Valt’s LinkedIn page
与此同时,我估计需要工科学位的职位将要从外地招聘员工,甚至是州外,再把他们搬迁到普雷斯克岛。不是每个雇主都愿意找这麻烦。找到有意愿做这事的雇主,对于打破“鸡生蛋还是蛋生鸡”的悖论至关重要,这就是为什么这里的经济规划者对Valt如此兴奋。但据我所知,我担心他们将很难找到他们需要的人才。
But opportunities like this highlight a chicken and egg paradox that arises when trying to attract such an employer. Even if there are enough workers in the region to fill these jobs, they will require specific training and degrees to fill these positions. Students will only choose certain educational tracks when job prospects after graduation look promising, but employers will struggle to see this region as attractive to locate their business if they believe they can find enough talents to hire. In this case, the local branch of the University of Maine in Presque Isle doesn’t have a 4-year engineering program, nor does the local community college have a 2-year machining program. Where will these talents come from?
所有这些都让人想起中国农村地区,那里的情况可能更糟糕。例如,中国在保证农村学校师资方面都有很大的困难,这是一个严重而持续、并且目前还看不到结构性解决方案的问题。我担心缅因州很快也会变成这样。
To try to get around this, Valt has been forced to work with directly with local schools to provide job training just to fill their CNC machining positions:
第三章:谁负责修复社区经济?
Screenshot is taken from a local news report
在这次旅行中,我在肯特堡发现了一家生意兴隆的新店,一家名为“红魔烘焙”的咖啡店。不是过滤式滴滤咖啡,而是店主自己烘焙咖啡豆,制作精品浓缩咖啡——在这个大多数人一生都在快乐地喝着浑浊的滴滤咖啡的地方。
Meanwhile, I imagine the positions that need engineering degrees will require employees to be hired in from outside the county, or even outside the state, to be relocated to Presque Isle. Not every employer will be willing to go through such a process. Finding one that will is crucial to breaking out of this chicken/egg paradox, which is why economic planners up here are so excited about Valt. But based on what I’ve been hearing from everyone, I’m afraid they’re going to struggle to find the people they need.
他告诉我,他以前在军队服役时周游世界,品尝过高质量的咖啡,最终决定他的家乡真正需要正宗的拿铁,所以他做到了。在开店之前,他必须花时间学习烘焙和准备咖啡豆。为了支付这些启动成本,他向北缅因发展委员会(NMDC)申请了一笔小企业贷款,并拿到了贷款。
All of this is strongly reminiscent of rural regions in China, where the situation is probably even more dire. For instance, China has a great deal of trouble even securing teachers to work in rural areas, a serious and ongoing problem with no immediate structural fix in sight. I fear Maine will also be in such a state very soon.
我以前从未听说过NMDC,但我浏览了他们的网站,意识到如果有人对阿鲁斯土克县的战略经济规划有意见和想法,那一定是这些人。NDMC的总部设在缅因州的卡里布市,离肯特堡不远。因此,我给他们打了个电话,和他们的经济发展总监乔恩•格列佛(Jon Gulliver)安排了一次聊天采访的机会。
Chapter 3: Who’s in Charge of Fixing This Stuff?
乔恩告诉我,NMDC是联邦政府指定的非营利组织,为缅因州北部的农村社区提供经济发展服务。他们帮助城镇进行经济咨询、市场营销、旅游开发、吸引雇主等。自1970年代以来,他们还运营一个贷款和社区赠款融资项目,就是他们资助了“红魔烘焙”咖啡店。
On this trip, I found a new business in Fort Kent that seemed to be doing well, a coffee shop called the Red Devil Roast. Not filter-drip, but a guy roasting his own beans and making barista espresso drinks, in a part of the world where most people have been happy drinking sludgy drip coffee their whole lives.
他告诉我,在该地区小社区的经济和战略规划问题上,NMDC为该县的大部分地区提供支持。虽然一些较大的城镇和城市有自己的专门人员为城镇做战略规划,但大多数将利用NMDC的服务。NMDC可能是最有能力“拯救”阿鲁斯土克社区的组织。
He told me he had previously traveled the world while in the military and sampled high-quality coffee, and eventually decided that what his hometown really needed was proper lattes…so he made it happen. Before opening his shop, he had to spend time learning to roast and prepare the beans. To cover those startup costs, he had applied for (and received) a small business loan from the Northern Maine Development Commission (NMDC).
我发现NMDC是一个会员制组织——本地社区每年要缴纳会费才能使用它的服务。乔恩告诉我,会费只占他们年度预算的很小一部分——大部分是通过联邦拨款得来的。它把这些资源输送给当地的企业主和潜在创业者。我也看出NMDC是属于公私合营机构的身份了。
I had never heard of NMDC before, but I took a look at their website and realized that if anyone would have opinions and thoughts about the strategic economic planning of Aroostook County, it would be these guys. NDMC is headquartered in the city of Caribou, Maine, not far from Fort Kent. So, I gave them a call and set up an interview/chat session with their Director of Economic Development, Jon Gulliver.
NMDC的长期战略目标之一是实现自给自足,不再那么依赖联邦拨款。他们的社区融资和贷款部门已经实现了这一点。该部门为“红魔烘焙”这样的企业提供过桥融资,因为这些企业处于起步阶段,或者商业银行不愿意提供贷款。
Jon told me NMDC is a nonprofit designated by the federal government to provide economic development services to rural communities in Northern Maine. They help towns with economic consulting, marketing, tourism development, attracting employers, etc. Since the 70s, they have also had a lending and community grant finance program, which is what the Red Devil Roast had taken advantage of.
这让我想起了中国的农村信用合作社,它由中国人民银行设立,旨在为农村地区提供小额信贷服务。但是,NMDC的其他角色似乎与我之前在中国遇到的任何机构都没有明确的对应关系。
He told me that when it comes to economic and strategic planning for small communities in the area, NMDC covers and provides support for much of the county. While some of the larger towns and cities have their own dedicated person to do strategic planning for the town, most will piggyback on NMDC’s services. NMDC is probably the closest thing Aroostook has to an organization whose job it is to “save” our communities.
我向乔恩讲述了我在中国农村旅行的经历,以及“新农村计划”下的一些举措,包括基础设施开发和旅游/商业企业的创建,这些企业有望吸引年轻人来这些社区生活和工作。
I discovered NMDC is a membership organization - regional communities pay annual dues in order to use its services. Jon told me the dues only cover a very small portion of their annual budget though - most of it arrives via federal grants. As it shuttles these resources to local business owners and would-be entrepreneurs, NMDC’s public-private partnership identity becomes clearer to me.
“是的,这就是‘你建了,他们就会来’的方法。”乔恩说。“一开始,我们还想制定一个计划,让我们的社区与外来人口一起发展。但现在我们只专注于努力留住本地现存人口。”
One of NMDC’s long-term strategic goals for itself is to become self-sufficient and not so reliant on federal grants for funding. This is something their community financing and loans division has already achieved. This division provides bridge financing for businesses like the Red Devil Roast that are too early-stage or too uncertain for commercial banks to be willing to provide loans.
乔恩告诉我,在新冠疫情的早期阶段,阿鲁斯土克的人口实际上出现了多年来的第一次增长,因为城市里的人涌回农村。然而,这种增长是短暂的,人口下降的长期趋势在去年再现。《振兴缅因州》白皮书还指出,许多新移民仍然为州外雇主远程工作,这对缓解劳动力危机几乎没有帮助。
For me, this is reminiscent of China’s Rural Credit Cooperatives, established by the People’s Bank of China to offer micro-finance services in rural areas. But, the rest of NMDC’s role doesn’t seem to have a really clear corollary to any institutions I’ve encountered before in China.
乔恩当然比我更了解阿鲁斯土克县的经济发展细节,但我不禁觉得,仅仅把“不流失人员”当做目标,似乎有点低。在这种情况下,即使你成功了,你也只是原地踏步,没有取得任何进展。我觉得应该有可能吸引新人来到本地,同时创造当地人留在这里的理由,而不是非此即彼。但可能我只是太天真,没有考虑到一堆复杂的问题。至少有一个像NMDC这样的组织存在。至少有人在尝试做些什么,尽管所采取的方法与我在中国看到的非常不同。全美国各地的县级行政区都有这样的机构吗?
Image source: China Daily
第四章:旅游业怎么样?
I told Jon about my experiences traveling around the Chinese countryside, along with some of the initiatives put into place as part of the New Countryside program, including infrastructure development and creation of tourism/commercial enterprises that will hopefully entice young people to come to live and work in these communities.
北缅因发展委员会的乔恩•格列佛告诉我,除了招商外,NMDC在北缅因州工作的一个关键部分是帮助社区更好地定位,以服务旅游业。尽管缅因州的旅游业总体上蓬勃发展,去年的旅游业收入达到了近80亿美元,但我的家乡阿鲁斯土克县只占其中的一小部分——2%或3%。这些钱大部分都花在缅因州海岸,或者更南部内陆湖泊的户外休闲活动上。但至少我们赚到了一点点。
“Yes, that’s the ‘if you build it, they will come’ approach” Jon said. “At the beginning, we also wanted to have a plan to grow our communities with people from outside. But now we’re just focused on trying to keep who we still have here”.
在阿鲁斯土克,旅游业基本上是一个三季的产业。我们在夏季有3-4个月的露营和钓鱼时间,在冬季有3-4个月的雪地摩托、滑雪和冰上钓鱼时间,在秋季有1-2个月的狩猎和赏叶时间,在春季有1-2个月的休息时间(在当地也被称为“泥季”,原因很明显)。一篇当地新闻报道引用缅因州旅游局数据称,阿鲁斯托克的旅游收入在夏季是最强劲的,略胜其他季节。这让我感到意外。
Jon told me that that during the early stages of the pandemic, Aroostook’s population actually grew for the first time in years, as people in cities bolted for the countryside. The gain was short-lived, however, and the long-term trend of population decline resumed again last year. The Making Maine Work white paper also pointed out that many of these new migrants still work remotely for out-of-state employers, which does little to alleviate the labor crisis.
同一篇新闻报道还揣测道,农业旅游可能是阿鲁斯土克潜在的未开发机会,应该投入更多资源发展这一部门。农业旅游的概念是通过吸引游客到农场或牧场消费,将农业与旅游业联系起来。我认为阿鲁斯土克在这方面是完美的,但它需要一些企业家的信心飞跃,更多的是“如果我们建了它,他们就会来”的想法。这需要当地人调整他们对生计的态度。他们习惯为了食物、出于实用性而种地,而不是为了让缺乏自然的城市居民获得生态刺激而种地。但这是有回报的。
Obviously, Jon knows more about the details of Aroostook’s economic development than I do, but I can’t help but feel that setting an objective to “not lose people” is a bit of a low bar. In that scenario, even if you succeed, you’re just treading water, not making any forward progress. I feel it should be possible to attract new people into the region while simultaneously creating reasons for locals to stay here, instead of either/or. But possibly (even probably) I am just being naïve about a bunch of complexities I’ve not considered. At least an organization like NMDC exists. At least someone is trying to do something, although the approach taken is very different from what I’ve seen in China. Do organizations like this exist on a county level everywhere in the country?
作为其乡村振兴运动的一部分,中国正在尝试类似的做法。如果中国的方法奏效,几年后它可能成为一个很好的案例研究。但外界需要先了解它的运作机制,才能将中国振兴乡村模式作为真正的成功典范。但这很有趣。
Chapter 4: What About Tourism?
除了新奇的农业旅游,“常规的”体育和休闲旅游呢?露营、钓鱼、徒步旅行、打猎、雪鞋徒步、滑雪、雪地摩托……阿鲁斯土克都有丰富的资源。扩展这些经典的旅游景点能成为拯救缅因州北部的解决方案吗?
Besides lobbying to bring in employers, Jon Gulliver at the Northern Maine Development Commission told me that a key part of NMDC’s work in northern Maine is helping communities position themselves better for tourism. Although tourism is booming in Maine overall, reaching almost 8 billion USD in spending last year, my home of Aroostook County only sees a tiny fraction of that - just 2 or 3%. Most of those dollars go to the Maine coast, or outdoor recreation at inland lakes farther south. But we get a bit.
理论上是有可能的。但说实话,在这些方面,阿鲁斯土克与本州其他地方相比并没有真正的竞争优势。当然,我们有美丽的湖泊、河流和森林,但坦白说,整个州都充满了美丽的湖泊、河流和森林。当然,我们有友好的民众,平和、安宁的生活方式,为城市的繁忙喧嚣提供了喘息空间,但缅因州大部分都是这样的。
Tourism is basically a three-season affair in Aroostook. We get about 3-4 months of camping and fishing in the summer, 3-4 months of snowmobiling, skiing, and ice fishing in the winter, 1-2 months of hunting and leaf watching in the fall, and 1-2 months of downtime in the spring (also known as “mud season” locally, for reasons that should be obvious). According to a local news report citing the Maine State Office of Tourism, Aroostook’s tourism revenue is strongest (by a small margin) in the summer (a surprise to me).
毕竟,本州中部和南部的露营或狩猎目的地要更容易到达,而且位于更大的社区,在当地节日、餐饮和购物方面为游客提供更多服务。尽管缅因州北部确实有一些独特的当地节日和活动,但这里的餐饮和购物选择可能会少很多——请记住,由于我在第一部分中讨论的劳动力短缺,我们几乎无法保持餐馆的营业!
The same news report went on to speculate that agri-tourism could be a potentially untapped opportunity for Aroostook, and that more resources should be put into developing this sector. The concept of agri-tourism focuses on connecting farming/ agriculture with tourism, by bringing visitors to a farm or ranch to spend money. I think Aroostook is perfect for this, but it will require a leap of faith from some entrepreneurial minds with more of that “if we build it, they will come” thinking. It would take an adjustment to how locals see themselves and their livelihoods…they are accustomed to farming for food…farming out of practicality…not farming so that nature-starved urbanites can get eco-titillated. But it pays.
在参观NMDC之前,我在普雷斯克岛的阿鲁斯土克中心购物中心停留了一下。普雷斯克岛有8800人口,是阿鲁斯土克县最大的城市(尽管自1990年以来其人口下降了15%以上)。参观购物中心时,我震惊于它是如此的空旷——这是一个幽灵般的购物中心,就像你在中国看到的那样。关键的区别在于,缅因州的幽灵基础设施是“后人流时代”的,而中国的是“前人流时代”的。
Mississippi agritourism. Image is from farmflavor.com
我记得我小时候去购物中心的时候,美食街太繁忙了,你得拿着你的托盘在那里转悠10分钟,才能等到一个座位空出来。现在,整个商场只有不到五家店在营业,美食广场只剩下一家孤零零的餐厅,还是一家中餐馆。
China’s trying something very similar right now as part of its Rural Rejuvenation campaign. If China’s approach works well, it could become a great case study in a few years. Until we see how it works, it can’t really serve as a model of success yet. But it is interesting.
这家中餐馆的老板叫温妮,来自香港,曾在旧金山生活。她告诉我,她站在收银台后面,看着所有的邻居店面一家家关张,离她的店越来越近。购物中心的人流量在这些年里越来越少。但是忠实顾客仍旧给她带来生意,他们来购物中心只是为了来她这里取外卖。她的餐厅是黑暗的美食广场上唯一的灯光。
Besides newfangled agri-tourism, what about “regular” sport and recreational tourism? Camping, fishing, hiking, hunting, snowshoeing, skiing, snowmobiling…Aroostook has great resources for all of that. Could expansion of these classic tourism draws be the solution that saves northern Maine?
我问温妮,如果商场关门,她是否会考虑在商场外开一家独立餐厅。她说:“不,我不会。我累了。我女儿不想在这里工作。她在香港学习。等这个商场关门了,我也关门大吉。”
It’s possible…in theory. But to be honest, Aroostook doesn’t really have a competitive advantage for these things versus the rest of the state. Of course, we have gorgeous lakes and rivers and forests, but frankly the entire state is completely stuffed with gorgeous lakes and rivers and forests. Sure, we have friendly locals and a peaceful, quiet way of life, offering respite from the frantic bustle of the cities, but that’s also true for most of the state….
我想知道,当其他许多地方的中餐馆倒闭时,该州的中餐馆能在劳动力短缺的情况下生存下来,是不是因为他们可以选择从家乡引进家庭成员?我认为这是一个合理的理论。
Sebec Lake, Maine. Image taken by me in early October.
旁边一个看起来20多岁的商场清洁工告诉我,她把商场的衰落归咎于附近的沃尔玛(Walmart)。
At the end of the day, camping or hunting destinations in the central and southern part of the state are much easier to get to…and are located in larger communities that have more to offer to tourists in terms of local festivals, dining, and shopping. Although northern Maine does have its share of quirky local festivals and events, the dining and shopping options up here are likely to underwhelm - remember that thanks to the labor shortage I discussed in Part I, we can barely keep restaurants open!
“我们先是失去了凯马特超市,然后是西尔斯购物中心,现在只剩下杰西潘尼(JCPenney)。我甚至不知道谁会在杰西潘尼购物,真不敢相信他们还开着....这里的所有商店都关门了,我想大概没有顾客了,真是太遗憾了,我们甚至都没有购物中心了,不过我想这里的商店都比沃尔玛贵。你知道去年这里新开了一家餐厅,两个月后就关门了?他们把所有的桌椅都留下了……非常漂亮的木桌椅。”
Before visiting NMDC, I stopped in at the Aroostook Centre Mall in Presque Isle. With a population of 8800, Presque Isle is the largest city in Aroostook County (although its population has declined over 15% since 1990). Visiting the mall, I was shocked at how empty it was - it was a ghost mall, like something you’d see in China. The key difference is that Maine’s ghost infrastructure is post-people, while China’s is pre-people.
将镇上所有的杂货店和零售商店合并成一个沃尔玛可能很方便,甚至对当地人的钱包有好处,但它肯定对寻找本地特色商店的游客没有太大的吸引力。
I remember when I went to the mall as a kid that the food court would be so busy, you’d have to walk around for 10 minutes with your tray waiting for a seat to open up. Now, the whole mall has less than five stores open and the food court has just one lonely restaurant left (a Chinese place, ironically)
我问NMDC的乔恩,对于我家乡肯特堡正在试图吸引更多游客和扭转衰落的镇长,他有什么建议。他坦率地告诉我,这样的问题没有真正好的答案。他们没有权力(或资金)将整个小镇打造成一个旅游目的地,拥有成功所需的所有景点、住宿和公共关系,就像中国试图在农村做的那样。
The Chinese restaurant owner’s name is Winnie and she’s from Hong Kong, via San Francisco. From behind the cash register, she told me she’s watched all her neighbors close, one by one, as the mall foot traffic dried up over the years. But, she still gets business from loyal customers who come to the mall just to pick up takeout from her restaurant, the only light in an otherwise dark food court.
NMDC所能做的是为新的以旅游为导向的企业提供财政支持,并提供信息咨询,以帮助该镇定位自身。他们可以通过在“访问阿鲁斯土克”网站上的旅游门户页面,将游客引向本县。但是小镇本身必须制定自己的发展计划,必须培养有雄心的企业主,必须分配资金投资关键的基础设施,必须在网上推销自己。
I ask Winnie if she would consider opening a standalone restaurant outside the mall if it closed down. “No…I wouldn’t” she says. “I’m tired. My daughter doesn’t want to work here. She’s studying in Hong Kong. When this mall is done, I’m done.”
因此,这个城镇是否有一个积极的、以增长为中心的模式取决于管理这个城镇的关键官员的个性。如果社区中有影响力的人更加保守,那么整个小镇的旅游、营销和发展方法也会更加保守。
I wonder if the Chinese restaurants in the state have survived the labor shortage while so many other places have failed because they have the option to bring in extended family members from back home? It’s a plausible theory I think.
我的一个高中朋友参与了当地一家雪地摩托俱乐部的运营,他告诉我,老一辈的商业领袖退休(为更懂社交媒体和广告的年轻人让路)对他们的发展很重要。她说,由于他们在网上的努力,他们雪地摩托俱乐部的游客会员在过去几年里一直在增长,现在一些会员说,他们在这里旅行时很难找到住宿。当然,像其他类型的企业一样,投资建设旅游酒店需要“你建了,他们就会来”的思维。
A nearby mall cleaning staff who looked to be in her mid-20s told me she blames the nearby Walmart for the decline of the mall.
这类具体工作在肯特堡一直是出了名的具有艰难。2004年,我们镇主办了2003-2004年冬季两项世界杯(Biathlon World Cup)的一个赛段,这一激动人心的时刻吸引了近2万名国际观众来到这里,为他们的运动员赢得奖牌和荣誉而欢呼。这对小镇来说是一笔巨大的交易,也是缅因北部冬季运动经济发展的巨大机遇。几年后,冬季两项世界杯(Biathlon World Cup)的组织者希望肯特堡(Fort Kent)能建造一座能容纳更多观众和运动员的酒店,这是能够再次举办这项赛事的先决条件。该镇的规划委员会在这个问题上犹豫了很久,最终认为他们无法证明这项开支的合理性。普雷斯克岛建造了酒店,他们获得了世界杯的举办权。现在,世界级的运动员在我们的赛道上训练,享受我们精心打理的雪地,但我们没有举办任何大型赛事。
“First we lost Kmart, then Sears, and now there’s only the JCPenney left. And I don’t know even know who shops at JCPenney…I can’t believe they’re still open….Everything else in here closed…I guess there’s no customers…It’s really a shame…We don’t even have a mall anymore…But I guess the stores in here were always expensive compared to Walmart. You know a new restaurant opened in here last year and closed after just two months? They left all their tables and chairs behind…really nice wood tables.”
在一个小镇上,一个有影响力的地方人物或领袖就可以控制整个社区的发展,常常促成或破坏整个社区的发展。这一智慧既适用于缅因州,也适用于中国农村。
Consolidating all the variety and retail stores in town into one Walmart might be convenient and even good for the locals’ pocketbooks, but it sure doesn’t have much of a draw for tourists looking for cute local shopping.
离我长大的地方不远的一个小镇就住着这样一个人。这位当地的大人物现在已经退休了,他在缅因州当了几十年的州议员,把自己打造成了一个有权有势的人,以在他的权力范围内尽一切努力照顾他的选民的利益而闻名。在我们县,他被视为当地政治的后台大佬。他还因参与一些可疑的商业交易而闻名,这些交易引起了不少人的不满,而且他脾气暴躁(尤其是在被问及商业交易时)。
I asked Jon at NMDC what he would tell the town manager of a small town like my hometown of Fort Kent who is looking for a “solution” to attracting more tourists and reversing the town’s decline. He told me candidly that there’s no really good answer to a question like that. They don’t have the authority (or the funding) to mold an entire town into a tourist destination with all the attractions, lodging, and public relations it needs to be successful, the way China is trying to do with its countryside.
但是,每个人都知道,当一个本地出身的学生需要在国会大厦做暑期实习时,或者当一家本地企业有棘手的监管问题需要解决时,他也慷慨地奉献了自己的时间和资源……而且,我们的道路总能获得拨款,在春天重新铺设,原因可能就是他。现在他退休了,在这里做事就困难多了。
What NMDC can do is provide financial support to new tourism-oriented businesses and provide information consulting to help the town position itself. They can shunt tourists in the direction of Aroostook County with the tourism portal page they maintain at Visit Aroostook. But the town itself has to decide how aggressive they want to be with their development plan, has to cultivate its own entrepreneurs with big ideas, has to allocate funds to invest in the key infrastructure, has to market itself online.
NMDC的乔恩告诉我,阿鲁斯土克县过去是缅因州立法机构中的一支强大力量,因为本地立法者过去都在地方事务上联合投票,不分政党。这意味着我们可以一直依靠立法者的统一战线……至少过去是这样的。但是阿鲁斯土克县的立法者现在不作为一个整体投票;现在他们按照党派路线投票。也许这只是国家层面上党派偏见的反映。或者也许是因为那个曾经鞭策他们结成统一战线的家伙最终退休了。如今,当地立法者的影响力比过去少了很多。他们似乎忙于在州府奥古斯塔打文化战,无法在经济战中团结一致,所以他们都可能丢掉大本营的选票。
So, whether the town has an aggressive, growth-centric model depends on the personalities of the key players who run the town. If the influential people in the community are more conservative, then the town’s entire approach to tourism, marketing, and development will be more conservative.
我们的州参议员叫特洛伊•杰克逊。他是现任缅因州参议院议长,也是我一位高中校友的父亲。在我离开缅因州的前几天,我在当地的一个工艺品集市上偶遇了他。我已经14年没见过他了,但我想他还是认得我。即便他没有认出我,他也很好地掩饰了。在我个人看来,杰克逊是个好人。
A high school friend of mine who is involved with running a local snowmobile club told me that the older generation of business leaders retiring (and making way for younger people with more social media and advertising savvy) has been important for their growth. She said tourist membership in their snowmobile club has been growing consistently for the last few years thanks to their online efforts, and now some members have reported trouble finding accommodations on their trips up here. Of course, investing in building tourist hotels, like other types of businesses, requires “if you build it, they will come” thinking.
我在闲聊中趁机提到,我正在写一些关于阿鲁斯土克县和中国农村对比的东西,这就变成了一场完整的对话。我告诉他,中国对任何事情都采取“你建了,他们就会来”的态度——尤其是基础设施和发展。这让杰克逊立刻活跃起来。
That specific effort has been famously challenging in Fort Kent. In 2004, we played host to a leg of the 2003-2004 Biathlon World Cup, an exciting episode that brought nearly 20,000 international spectators into town to cheer their athletes on to medals and glory. It was a huge deal for the town, and a big opportunity for the development of the winter sports economy in northern Maine. A few years later, the organizers of the Biathlon World Cup wanted Fort Kent to build a hotel that could accommodate more spectators and athletes as a prerequisite for being able to host the event once again. The town’s planning committee hemmed and hawed over it for ages, and eventually decided they couldn’t justify the cost. Presque Isle built the hotel instead, and they got to host the World Cup. Now, world-class athletes train on our trails and enjoy our well-groomed snow, but we aren’t hosting any big events.
“我们就需要这个!我们需要第一件事就是更多的宽带网络覆盖。什么样的企业会有兴趣把他们的办公室建在互联网如此糟糕的地方?”
Chapter 5: Local Politics are Tricky Anywhere
“我同意,”我告诉他。“别提5G甚至4G了,我们这里几乎没有3G的速度。”
In a small town, a single influential local personality or politician can exert control over the development of an entire community - often making…or breaking…development. This wisdom holds as true for Maine as it does in rural China.
他说:“如果我们能得到信号的话!还有很多盲区。这是我们目前正在做的事情之一,安装两座新的信号塔。”。
A town not far from where I grew up is home to such an individual. Retired now, this local VIP spent many decades as a Maine state legislator, building himself into a power player with a reputation for doing everything in his power to take care of his constituents’ interests. He was even seen as a bit of a political kingmaker in our county. He was also known for being involved in some shady business dealings that raised more than a few eyebrows and having a fierce temper (especially when asked about the business dealings).
我告诉他,中国农村的基础设施发展基本上是自上而下的,由国家投资资金驱动。我解释中国核心思维是:“我们国家的发展依赖于农村地区的劳动力;现在是国家反哺农村的时候了。”
But. Everyone knows that that he was also generous with his time and resources when a local student needed a summer internship down in the capitol, or when a local business had a gnarly regulatory problem that needed fixing…and that he’s probably the reason that our local roads always had appropriations to be freshly re-paved in the spring. And now that he’s retired, it’s a lot more difficult to get things done up here.
我能看到,他的眼睛因这个想法而亮了起来,我早就猜到了。在他从政之前,杰克逊一家已经出了五代工会会员伐木工人,我很确定他仍然花大量的时间在森林里工作。当州参议员又赚不了多少钱。
Jon at NMDC told me Aroostook County used to be a powerful force in the Maine state legislature because the local legislators used to all vote together on local matters, regardless of political party. This meant we could always count on a unified front from our lawmakers…or at least we used to. Aroostook County lawmakers don’t vote as a bloc these days; now they vote along party lines. Maybe it’s just a reflection of partisanship at the national level. Or perhaps it’s because that guy who used to whip them into shape finally retired. These days, local lawmakers have a lot less leverage than they used to. Seems they’re too busy fighting culture wars down in Augusta to come together on the economic war that they’re all in danger of losing back home.
“这很有趣。我从来没有这样想过,但这是一个很好的描述方式”。他的语气平静下来,声音稍稍降低。“但你知道,在缅因州……在这里,人们称之为……社会主义”,很难有这样的政府支出和政府管理。
Our state senator is named Troy Jackson. He’s the current Maine Senate President….and also the father of a friend from high school. A few days before I left Maine, I bumped into him at a local crafts fair. I hadn’t seen him in 14 years, but I think he still recognized me. If he didn’t, he played it off well. Jackson’s a good guy, in my personal estimation.
我们还讨论了劳动力短缺的问题,他证实这是整个州的一个大问题。他告诉我:“人们的家庭不再是像过去那样的大家庭了……下一代的人口要少得多。”但是杰克逊有一个主意来提振缅因州摇摇欲坠的劳动力市场:为什么不鼓励更多的合法移民到缅因州?几十年来,缅因州南部,特别是我们的第二大城市刘易斯顿,已经成为来自东非,特别是索马里的新移民的目的地。杰克逊认为,这可能有助于解决入门级劳动力短缺的问题。
Maine Senate President and local guy Troy Jackson
“我不想称之为种族主义,因为这不是一个恰当的词,但确实有很多……”
While making small talk, I took the opportunity to mention I’m writing something about Aroostook County and rural China, and that turned into a whole conversation. I told him about China’s “if you build it, they will come” approach to everything - especially infrastructure and development. This got Jackson animated immediately.
“无知?”我补充道,试图提供帮助。
“We need that here! The first thing we need to do up here is just get more broadband coverage. What kind of business would be interested in putting their office up here with such poor internet?”
“对,没错,就是无知。每当我们谈论移民问题时,我都能在人们的眼中看到....但是让我告诉你,当我在路易斯顿的竞选总部和一些索马里移民一起工作时,他们工作非常努力!我认为,如果他们想在这里工作,那还有什么问题?”
“I agree,” I tell him. “Forget about 5G or even 4G, we barely have 3G speeds up here.”
在阿鲁斯土克,我怀疑大多数人没怎么接触过移民,不会对他们有任何特别的看法,不管他们是否无知。然而,考虑到这里对任何“来自外地”的人的普遍的孤立和怀疑程度(特别是那些开着马萨诸塞州或康涅狄格州车牌汽车的人),这肯定需要一个灵活的方法。然而归根到底,与其眼睁睁地看着社区里的每一家企业因为找不到足够的工人而倒闭,我认为人们还是能够处理这个问题。
“If we can get a signal at all! There’s still so many dead zones. That’s one of the things we’re working on right now, getting two new towers installed” he says.
第五章:结论——这一切意味着什么?
I tell him how the rural infrastructure development in China’s countryside is mostly top-down, driven by national investment money. I explain how China’s core philosophical foundation for this is basically: “our country has grown on the back of labor from the rural areas; now it’s time for the nation to repay the countryside.”
我的文章也许有点标题党。缅因州和中国之间的直接对比肯定会有些牵强。人口密度的比较尤其搞笑;我的家乡阿鲁斯土克县的全部人口,与一个典型的中国乡镇差不多,但面积可能有几个中国的县那么大。
I can see his eyes light up with that concept, as I could have guessed they would. Before he entered politics, Jackson was a 5th-generation union logger, and I’m pretty sure he still spends a good amount of time working in the woods. It’s not like you make the big bucks as a state senator.
但很明显,两国对自己的农村地区及其经济得出了相同的结论:二者都面临困境,需要拯救。他们面临的问题的确切性质并没有太大的不同。
“That’s very interesting. I’ve never quite thought about it like that, but it’s a good way to describe it”. His tone sobers and he lowers his voice slightly. “But you know it would be so difficult to have that kind of government spending and government management in Maine…around here, people call that…socialism”.
我以前在写作中提到过一个关于城市化的常见理论,大意是:城市化才是人类社会正常的方式。更多的人生活在城市里效率更高,而为农村居民提供食物、医疗、基础设施和服务则会低效地消耗资源。农村生活是一个不合时宜的现象。这一理论的支持者可能会说:无论你是否同意,认为它是否可取,它已经在发生了,因为它是我们社会发展方式的最自然结果。
Indeed.
像中国和缅因州正在进行的工作,则代表了对这种理论的排斥。相反,他们主张农村和农村生活方式是我们世界的重要组成部分,值得运用资源去拯救。农村不仅仅是供城市人参观的地方,也是农村居民享受高质量生活的地方。
We also discuss the labor shortage and he confirms that it’s a huge problem across the whole state. “People just don’t have the large families like they used to…the next generation is much smaller” he tells me. But Jackson has an idea for bolstering Maine’s faltering labor force: why not encourage more legal immigration to Maine? For several decades now, southern Maine, especially our second-largest city of Lewiston, has become a destination for recent immigrants from East Africa, particularly Somalia. Jackson thinks more of this could help with the entry-level labor shortage.
虽然两地都在做出努力,但总的来说,我认为大规模的社会改造项目与中国的发展模式更匹配。在这篇文章中,我使用了多少次 "如果你建设了,人们就会来 "这句话?除了这句话,你还能怎样总结中国的国家建设方法?从高铁线路到鄂尔多斯市的规划,都体现了这种方法。当国家承担了投资风险时,它甚至还是风险吗?对当地人来说不是风险,也许对全国性的贷款银行来说,的确是风险。
But, he acknowledges, it’s a sensitive issue.
美国缅因州显然不能遵循这种模式。即使在州或联邦层面有资金用于这样的项目,但要试试建设一个新的旅游景点,或升级其基础设施等项目,其背后的政治意愿需要长期维持,比美国的一个选举周期长得多。这些项目需要多年的时间来实现和看到结果,但在这期间,无论哪个党派碰巧执政,其政治对手都会毫不留情地攻击现任者,指责其不能迅速取得成果,不能有效地花钱,不能准确地代表选民的意愿等等。
“I don’t want to call it racism, because that’s not the right word for it, but there’s just a lot of…”
此外,任何拟议的计划都不可避免地会与某些利益集团的利益相冲突,他们会非常乐意发起一场运动来阻止它,即使是那些看起来应该是皆大欢喜的事情。比如将一块荒地指定为国家公园,最终也会让那些几十年来一直在使用这块图的的猎人或户外运动者感到不快。
“Ignorance?” I supply, trying to be helpful.
如果缅因州能够成功,这将归功于具有强烈愿景、高风险容忍度、对劳工问题采取创造性方法以及善于获得地方民意支持和共识的私营部门领袖。考虑到这里人口稀少,不太可能每个社区都能出现这样的领袖。这意味着一些社区将存活下来,而一些社区将凋零。
“Yes, that’s right, ignorance. Any time we talk about immigration issues, I can see it in people’s eyes….But let me tell you…when I had my re-election campaign headquarters in Lewiston and we were working with some of those Somali immigrants…they just work so hard! I think… if they want to be here and they want to work…then what’s the problem?”
在伟大的美国拓荒神话中,迎接和克服挑战需要 "适者生存",需要 "命运眷顾勇敢者",还需要 "自助者天助之 "的精神。这些格言用于证明赢家的胜利和输家的失败都是合理的,不管运气或预先存在的条件在多大程度上发挥了作用。我相信,如果美国农村能振兴的话,这种哲学也会被应用到美国农村振兴中。一些社区将生存和繁荣,"因为他们奋斗获得了成果"。至于那些消亡的社区——也许也是他们应得的。
Up in Aroostook, I doubt most people have enough experience with immigrants to have any particular opinions about them, ignorant or otherwise. However, considering the general insularity and level of suspicion up here towards anyone “from away”, (with special emphasis on all people with MA or CT license plates), it definitely would need a deft approach. At the end of the day, though, if the alternative is watching every business in the community close because they can’t find enough workers, I think people can and will get over it.
(顺便说一句,也不是中国的每个村庄都能在幸存下来。那些在任何方面都无法竞争的村庄,似乎没有机会吸引游客或刺激当地的就业增长......它们只会被推平,其居民被转移到其他地方。一些社会学家和发展规划者不是在名义上进行平等的自然选择过程,而是积极地做出这些选择。但结果很可能是相似的)。
It’s an election year for Jackson and the vote is just days away. His opponent has been coming after him pretty hard with attack ads, so he probably can’t afford to make a sensitive topic like immigration part of his platform. It’s a shame, because I think it’s a pretty good idea. After bumped into Jackson, I took a look at his campaign website. Despite the labor shortage on everyone’s mind, his site still lists “Jobs” as one of his core policy platforms. Considering everything I’ve learned in the last few weeks, I wonder whether it shouldn’t read “Labor” instead?
我能够明确地说,我在理论上更偏好哪种发展方式吗?不能。美国的方式似乎自然而然地适合美国的乡村,而中国的方式似乎对中国的乡村更有道理。但这可算不上洞察;这只是一个稍加修饰的同义词。
Last Part: Conclusions/What Does it All Mean?
如果在缅因州采取中国式的措施,会不会产生一个充满了活力、健康、人民安居乐业的小城镇的乡村,由自上而下的规划和慷慨的财政支撑的、自我推动的经济?还是会产生空洞的僵尸村镇,通过泵氧来维持生命,对国家的纳税人来说只不过是一种负担?如果将缅因州的乡村振兴模式应用于中国农村,会不会导致每个小村庄都涌现出各种创业人才,农村的财富积累远远超过自上而下的 "水涨船高 "方法所能达到的速度?或者会产生新的封建领地、腐败和创造地方不平等的最新方式?
Obviously, my title was a little clickbait-y. A direct comparison between Maine and China is always going to be strained. The population densities are especially hilarious to compare; my entire home county of Aroostook has about the same population as a typical Chinese township but probably takes up the space of several Chinese counties.
当然,我对这些都没有答案;归根结底,我仍然只是这个思维实验的导游,而不是教员。请大家恕我才疏学浅。
But it’s clear that both countries have come to a conclusion about their rural communities and the economies that drive them: they need saving. And the exact nature of the problems they face are not so dissimilar.
但我希望,我已经为宣传家乡北缅因州尽了自己的一份力量。如果你曾经想过访问缅因州,而你的旅行计划只延伸到(缅因州旅游热点)巴哈伯(Bar Harbor)和阿卡迪亚国家公园(Acadia National Park);如果你认为世界在班戈镇(Bangor)就结束了......我衷心地建议你在下一次旅行中再大胆一点。我们会感激不尽。你应该这么玩:
I’ve mentioned before in my writing a common theory of urbanization that basically goes: urbanization is the natural way of the world. It’s more efficient for more people to live in cities and it consumes resources inefficiently to provide food, healthcare, infrastructure, and services to rural residents. Rural life is an anachronism. Proponents of this theory might argue: whether you agree with it or not, think it’s desirable or not, it’s already happening, because it’s the most natural outcome of the way we’ve arranged our communities.
沿着95号州际公路一直走到谢尔曼(Sherman)出口,然后按路牌指示向帕滕(Patten)方向行驶。沿着11号公路开拓你的足迹(但不要开得太快,不然会被州警察抓到,或者会撞到麋鹿),然后驶入帕滕。到巴克斯特州立公园(Baxter State Park)、卡塔丁山(Mount Katahdin)以及新的森林和水域国家纪念公园观光。接着向北走,然后向东,在马普尔顿(Mapleton)的干草山(Mount Haystack)上徒步旅行。去看看费尔菲尔德堡(Fort Fairfield)的缅因州土豆花节和普雷斯克岛(Presque Isle)的新越野滑雪道。来看看肯特堡的狗拉雪橇比赛和马达瓦斯卡的阿卡迪亚节。继续向北,向北,直到电线杆消失,地块没有名字。直到英语的 "欢迎来到我们镇 "的牌子开始变成法语,空气中弥漫着清脆的树叶、苹果和发霉的泥土的味道,在无尽的黑夜中你至少能看到一百万颗星星。直到你不记得完整的手机服务是什么样子,你开始考虑买一个橙色的狩猎帽,并想知道你穿法兰绒是否好看......
Efforts like what are going on in China and Maine represent a rejection of this theory. They assert instead that rural life and rural lifestyles are vital components of our world, worth funneling resources into saving. The countryside is not just for urbanites to visit, but also for rural dwellers to enjoy a high-quality lifestyle in.
在你离开之前,确保你有时间去探访当地的早餐店,当女服务员问你是否想在你的早晨的“泥咖啡”中掺一小杯咖啡白兰地(很可能是艾伦牌的)时,你就说 "好",然后消灭一叠沾满黄油和缅因州枫糖浆的自制荞麦煎饼,再用魁北克口音的法语说一句:“我X,太棒了!” (C’est bon ça, tabarnak!)
While both places are making efforts, in general, I think massive social-terraforming projects are a more natural match for the Chinese development model. How many times did I use the phrase “if you build it, they will come” in these two essays? How else but with this phrase could you summarize China’s approach to the construction of its country, embodied in everything from high speed rail lines to Ordos City? When the country underwrites the investment risk, is it even risk at all? Not for the locals…not really. For the national lenders perhaps.
作者是常驻中国的能源行业分析师。
版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

Lex专栏:辉瑞上调业绩指引并不能治愈深层伤口

维权投资者Starboard指责辉瑞肆意进行定价过高的交易,这是有道理的。

西方对格鲁吉亚选举结果的反应令格反对派沮丧

第比利斯街头爆发亲欧抗议,谴责所谓的投票舞弊行为。

Lex专栏:波音股东的因果报应

波音巨额融资的参与者将得到约五分之一的流动股,意味着老股东的股权被严重稀释。

政策制定者需要探索提高资本利得税的新方式

政府应考虑降低推动创新的投资活动的税率。

女性驱动的沙特工厂

近年来沙特女性的劳动参与率激增,今年第二季度达到35.8%,提前数年完成了突破30%的目标。

自民党执政联盟失去议会多数席位

对首相石破茂领导的自民党的严厉斥责使国家陷入政治动荡之中。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×