Japan is having a moment but will it survive Trump? - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
观点 日本商业和金融

Japan is having a moment but will it survive Trump?

Some believe the country’s economy could benefit from the result of the US election

Shanghai and Hong Kong’s loss will be Tokyo’s gain if US-China relations worsen

Within a few hours of Donald Trump securing his victory in the US, Japanese media was using the term matatora — the third Trump-related entry in Japan’s dictionary of escalating disquiet at his possible return.

The first word in the sequence, moshitora (“what if Trump”), was current in the latter months of 2023 and set a tone of background nervousness in government, corporate and market circles. The second, hobotora (“most likely Trump”), has been in widespread use this year, demanding more serious fretting around geopolitics, inflation and trade risk. Matatora (“Trump is back”) grants a general licence to gasp. 

For some, though, the word has unleashed a bullish snort and an argument that — absent embroilment in regional conflict or some other unforeseen calamity — Japan may be better placed than almost any other developed market outside the US to flourish over the next few years. 

Tokyo stocks, declares Neil Newman, a strategist who has been covering Japan since the 1980s, have rarely been so primed for ignition. If anything, he says, the political paralysis to emerge from Japan’s messy general election last month, and the implied guarantee of no bad policymaking, should only make the market more attractive to big global funds.

It is a beguiling argument, given an extra sparkle by the various volatile knee-jerk market moves in Tokyo that accompanied Wednesday’s news: gains for exporters (on assumptions of an even weaker yen), defence industry stocks (Trump will demand allies spend more on their militaries), banks (inflation will rise and so will interest rates) and companies that stand to benefit from the (probably accelerated while Trump is in power) reshoring of Japan’s semiconductor industry.

Nicholas Smith, a strategist at CLSA, also sees the prospect of a six-month boost for Japan as animal spirits lift the financial sector. Global capital spending, frozen in the run-up to the US election, should now thaw quickly, favouring Japan.

The longer-term case for Japanese equities under Trump, though, depends on two main lines of reasoning. The first is that Shanghai and Hong Kong’s loss will be Tokyo’s gain. US-China relations under the Biden administration have not been good, and there is reason to expect them to worsen under Trump. US pension funds have already come under pressure to stop or withdraw investment, while China-based dealmaking led by US private equity has all but fallen silent. Some US pension money may have returned to Hong Kong and China in recent months, but that could quickly reverse under Trump. Critically, the flows may well divert to Japan by default as the only developed market in Asia with the breadth and depth to absorb them. 

A second argument is that Japan’s recent descent into political stasis — the ruling Liberal Democratic party and its leader, Shigeru Ishiba, have yet to pull together a working government — is not, for the stock market, a big problem. Ishiba and his party are too weak to disturb the economy’s momentum, or unravel the progress on corporate governance reform and restructuring that appeals so strongly to foreign investors. 

There are clearly powerful counter-cases to all this, not least the chance that the Trump administration is associated with such elevated levels of geopolitical uncertainty that investors retreat to the sort of trading patterns that flee risk and tend to reduce exposure to Japan.

And though Japan may indeed be geared to global growth, a significant chunk of that is exposure to China. Even if Japanese companies can navigate their way through higher tariffs and intensified “pick-a-side” rhetoric from Washington, China itself could be far less rewarding than in the past.

On the political front, the risks around Ishiba’s dismal gamble on a general election could prove much greater than Newman and other bulls suppose. The price paid for the prime minister’s weakness — an inability to communicate Japan’s importance to Trump, or present himself as likely to be around long enough to be worth Trump caring about — will be high.

Since early 2024, when the Nikkei 225 Average finally surpassed the record set in 1989, the brokers’ mantra has been that Japan is Back. A succession of big US and European long-only funds have come to Tokyo to check for themselves that the sales pitch holds true. A growing number appear to have returned convinced but without the sort of comfort levels needed for a really big reallocation to Japan. They had in any case been holding fire until after the US election. 

Trump is Back may ensure that Japan stays Back. It may also set Japan way, way back.

[email protected]

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

欧洲增长前景受到赤字限制打击

欧洲经济还面临多项长期挑战,从老龄化社会导致劳动力萎缩,到应对气候变化和提升防务能力。

“主流媒体”能在第二届特朗普任期幸存下来吗?

美国的新闻集团担心,当选总统将通过监管、诉讼和恐吓来兑现竞选时对新闻业的威胁。

英伟达向全球芯片制造商传达的信息

英伟达向全球芯片制造商传达的信息很明确:如果不能打败它,那就加入它的供应链。

巴西的全球平衡战略比以往任何时候都更难实现

巴西总统卢拉一直寻求与美国、中国和俄罗斯都保持联系。但即使在特朗普再次胜选之前,这一外交空间也在缩小。

冗长的午餐应该为西班牙洪水预警失灵“背锅”吗?

幸存者指责西班牙地方政府失职,专家则警告气候变化正在引发更多难以预测的自然灾害。

广告商将重返X平台,试图讨好马斯克和特朗普

一些品牌曾因马斯克取消审核而放弃在该网站投放广告。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×