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The writer is executive director of the Berghof Foundation and author of ‘The Burning Question: Climate and Conflict’
本文作者是伯格霍夫基金会执行董事，著有《亟待解决的问题：气候与冲突》(The Burning Question： Climate and Conflict)。
Climate change exacerbates conflict, something that will only increase as temperatures continue to rise. But our responses to climate change, via the energy transition, can also generate conflict, and in ways we haven’t yet begun to address.
气候变化加剧了冲突，而随着气温的不断升高，冲突只会越来越多。但是，我们通过能源转型来应对气候变化，也会引发冲突，而且是以我们尚未开始应对的方式。
Such violence as was seen during the gilets jaunes protests in France in 2018 was mild. But the drive to net zero, the green transition and climate change are now weaponised as a ‘wedge issue’ in culture wars by conservative and far-right parties opposed to greener policies. Radicalism on both sides may deepen and even turn violent.
2018年法国“黄马甲”抗议期间发生的这种暴力是温和的。但现在，反对绿色政策的保守派和极右翼政党把追求净零排放、绿色转型和气候变化武器化，作为文化战争中的“楔子问题”。双方的激进主义可能会加深，甚至演变成暴力。
Whatever happens in western Europe and North America will almost certainly be dwarfed by outcomes in countries like Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. Already deeply affected by climate change and conflict, their economies are dominated by fossil fuels (over 89 per cent of exports in all three) that are contributing to the environmental crisis, as well as to domestic corruption and violence.
无论西欧和北美发生什么，与伊拉克、利比亚和尼日利亚等国的结果相比，几乎肯定相形见绌。这些国家已经深受气候变化和冲突的影响，其经济以化石燃料为主（在这三个国家中，化石燃料占出口的89%以上），而化石燃料正在加剧环境危机，并助长国内腐败和暴力。
The countries hit hardest by the energy transition will be those whose budgets currently rely on oil revenues to provide basic services, jobs, subsidies and security for their populations. The fracturing of that social contract and the consequent deprivation will probably result in rebellion, intercommunal conflict and accelerated recruitment into extremist armed groups such as Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and Islamic State — as well as violent repression by governments in response.
受能源转型冲击最大的国家将是那些预算目前依赖石油收入为其人民提供基本服务、就业、补贴和安全的国家。这种社会契约的破裂和随之而来的剥夺，可能会导致叛乱、族群间冲突，以及博科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)、基地组织(al-Qaeda)和伊斯兰国(Islamic State)等极端武装组织加速招募——政府也会采取暴力镇压作为回应。
The transition from fossil fuels is expected to cause conflict in other ways. There is growing evidence that regions mining and exporting minerals that are essential for renewable technologies will face the same “resource curse” that many oil producers are used to.
从化石燃料过渡预计会在其他方面引发冲突。越来越多的证据表明，开采和出口可再生技术所必需的矿物质的地区将面临许多石油生产国已经习惯的“资源诅咒”。
The Democratic Republic of Congo, which has experienced waves of violence for decades, has 70 per cent of the world’s reserves of cobalt and the seventh largest reserves of copper — both essential for batteries. Armed groups fight over control of the mines and use the revenues to prolong conflict, while the mining is often carried out under brutal conditions. As demand from the green transition raises their value over the long term, so will incentives increase to fight over control of these “conflict renewables”.
刚果民主共和国几十年来经历了一波又一波的暴力事件，该国拥有全球70%的钴储量和全球第七大铜储量，这两种资源都是制造电池所必需的。武装组织争夺矿山的控制权，并利用收入延长冲突，而采矿往往在残酷的条件下进行。随着绿色转型的需求在长期内提高其价值，争夺这些“冲突可再生能源”控制权的动机也会增加。
Many other countries fear they will also suffer higher levels of conflict as the energy transition gathers pace. What might be done to head off this under-appreciated threat?
许多其他国家担心，随着能源转型步伐加快，它们也将遭受更严重的冲突。我们可以做些什么来阻止这种未被充分认识的威胁呢？
First, there needs to be a more rigorous assessment of conflict risks when investing in renewable and rechargeable energy. “Sustainability” needs to apply not just to the production or storage of energy, but also to the rights of the affected communities. Companies and governments both have a role to play here in ensuring their supply chains do not foster abuses and conflict.
首先，在投资可再生能源和可再生能源时，需要对冲突风险进行更严格的评估。“可持续性”不仅需要适用于能源的生产或储存，还需要适用于受影响社区的权益。在这方面，企业和政府都有责任确保它们的供应链不会助长滥用和冲突。
For countries reliant on oil, diversification of their economies and revenue base is essential. The Gulf’s richer states use their sovereign funds for this purpose, but less fortunate countries also need investment. Renewable energies can reduce the centralisation, monopoly and weaponisation associated with fossil fuels, as seen in Russia. Solar, wind and hydropower can be generated in almost every country in ways that are decentralised, small-scale and relatively cheap, which make them less useful for belligerents.
对于依赖石油的国家来说，经济和收入基础的多样化至关重要。海湾地区较富裕的国家将其主权基金用于此目的，但不那么幸运的国家也需要投资。可再生能源可以减少与化石燃料相关的集权、垄断和武器化，就像在俄罗斯看到的那样。几乎每个国家都可以以分散、小规模和相对便宜的方式生产太阳能、风能和水力发电，这使得它们对好战者来说用处不大。
In Somalia and Mali, UN peace missions have invested in off-grid solar power to reduce dependence on diesel generators, emissions and the ability of armed groups to manipulate control of fuel supplies. Such initiatives can also create economic and peacebuilding opportunities for local communities. As a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests, bridging renewable technologies and peacebuilding may unlock “an under-appreciated tool for limiting conflict and maintaining peaceful societies”.
在索马里和马里，联合国维和特派团投资于离网太阳能发电，以减少对柴油发电机的依赖、减少排放和武装团体操纵燃料供应控制的能力。这些倡议还可以为当地社区创造经济和建设和平的机会。正如战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的一份报告所指出的，将可再生技术与建设和平结合起来，可能会开启“一种被低估的限制冲突和维护和平社会的工具”。
While the vast scale of the green transition presents varied challenges to different countries, all face increased risks of conflict. Developed economies need to show voters more convincingly the benefits of climate action, such as improved healthcare and infrastructure, to combat the narrative that net zero is “elitist” and “woke”. Oil-dependent states have to diversify their economies urgently with help from outside actors. And countries in neither of those categories but undergoing civil conflict need help in maximising the potential of renewables to contribute to peacebuilding.
虽然大规模的绿色转型给不同国家带来了不同的挑战，但所有国家都面临着日益增加的冲突风险。发达经济体需要更令人信服地向选民展示气候行动的好处，比如改善医疗和基础设施，以对抗净零是“精英主义”和“觉醒”的说法。依赖石油的国家必须在外部力量的帮助下，紧急实现经济多元化。那些既不属于上述两类，但正在经历国内冲突的国家需要帮助，以最大限度地发挥可再生能源对和平建设的贡献。
It is imperative to avoid tackling climate change in ways that unwittingly increase risks of violent conflict. But that’s where we are headed unless every aspect of the transition is guided by more conflict-sensitive approaches.
当务之急是避免以无意中增加暴力冲突风险的方式应对气候变化。但是，如果不以对冲突更加敏感的方式来指导转型的方方面面，我们就会陷入这种境地。