The author is chair of Marshall Wace, a multi-strategy investment manager
本文作者是多策略投资管理公司Marshall Wace的董事长
The US equity market has greeted the US election result with a celebratory run. I share the optimism. On almost every dimension, the policy mix is positive for US equities — deregulation, tax cuts, lower energy costs. What is not to like? It is also being implemented against a background of falling interest rates.
美国股市以一波欢庆的涨势回应了美国大选的结果。我也同样乐观。从几乎每个维度来看，政策组合对美国股市都是有利的——监管放松、减税、降低能源成本。有什么不好的呢？而且，这些政策还将在利率不断下降的背景下实施。
The only caveats to this positive outlook are the following. First, tariffs and immigration control are both inflationary and so the rate-cutting cycle will probably be shallower. The markets already revised up the level at which US rates will settle in this cycle from 3.4 per cent to 3.75 per cent in the run-up to the election.
但对于这种乐观的预期，还有些事情需要预先提醒：首先，关税和移民控制措施都会引发通胀，因此降息周期可能会变得更浅。在大选之前，市场对于美国在这一降息周期中最终利率水平的预期已经从之前的3.4%上调至3.75%。